The World is Flat

"He wants to see what Matt Stairs do what Matt Stairs does every time - hit one off the end of the world." - 11/2/09 10:08 central time, Tim McCarver paints a majestic picture of the true Matt Stairs experience.

Stairs' presence = World Series Champs again?

I am not a Phillies fan - I admit, I am tortured by the sight of the mighty Matt Stairs playing in a uniform of a team named after a cheap cigar or female horse. But, you KNOW his presence led the Phils back to the World Series this year. Think of the fear struck in Jonathon Broxton upon having to face Stairs in the bottom of the 9th in a crucial, win-or-be-down-3-1-in-the-series game 4. Last year, it was the tar-coated lungs of the late Harry Kalas inspiring Philadelphia to the championship. This year, it's the promise of celebrating with Labbatt's Blue - all on Stairs' dime.

That's why they're called predictions...

I was way off. I admit. In the interest of being fair and balanced, I'll go through and analyze how far off some of my NCAA predictions are as we approach the midway point of the season.

SEC:
Ole Miss - I only thought they'd have 1 loss overall to LSU, but they already have 2 before they head to Baton Rouge. Now that I look back on it, I should have known better, but oh well. The Rebels are still a good team and can contend for a solid bowl berth, but if they slip further, Arkansas and Auburn are on the up.
Alabama - They've looked really good so far this year. Greatly impressed with how quickly they reloaded after the talent they lost last year.
Arkansas and Auburn - Both teams have been impressive in that they've already emerged with several playmakers and guys who can step up. I didn't expect that early, and with a lot of time left in the year these teams have a shot to make some noise.

Big 12:
Colorado - Boy, was I wrong on them. I expected Cody Hawkins to really improve with a 3rd year of experience and more playmakers around him, but jeez, the guy sucks. To be fair, their defense played well against West Virginia and Texas, but overall that offense is just horrific.
Nebraska - I'll eat crow on this one. Thought they'd suck, but I was blown away by how well they played in the 4th quarter against Mizzou. Clearly the Big 12 North comes down to Nebraska and Kansas.
Oklahoma State - A surprise but injuries and Dez Bryant's suspension have derailed their campaign this year. Still a lot of talent and the Cowboys could benefit from the ol' "lose early, win late" scam and somehow get into a BCS bowl if they knock off OU.
Texas/Oklahoma - Still plenty of time for this to shake out, including this weekend, but so far Texas has looked good, but not great - they've seemed somewhat complacent in their 1st halves, then come out firing in the 2nd half i.e. Wyoming, Colorado. OU's losses to Miami and BYU hurt their national standing, but with Bradford back (and "healthy") they still have a shot to knock off Texas this weekend.

Big Ten:
Illinois - I drank the preseason Phil Steele koolaid in which he proclaimed the Fighting Illini as "one of his darkhorse national title contenders" along with numerous other now-bizarre accolades. Now, they'd be lucky to make a bowl game. Their offense is disorganized and inefficient and their defense, while adequate in Big Ten play, is constantly on the field. They've played Penn State and Michigan State close in the 1st half before collapsing in the 3rd quarter. It's incredible how ineffective Juice Williams has been - 2 td/4int so far even with a benching in favor of backup Eddie McGee.

Pac-10:
Cal - Terrible losses to Oregon and USC by a combined 66 points. After an impressive start, I don't know what happened to the Bears. An 0-2 start to conference play is ugly.

Otherwise, I haven't been too far off, which is good, but jeez...some of my picks were bad!

Good news

-- http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/20090826_Phillies_Notes__Stairs_wants_to_return_to_Phillies_in_2010.html

"I'm inexpensive, and I don't complain that I don't play a lot."

Big East/ACC/Pac-10

I admit, I follow the Big East a lot closer than the ACC or Pac-10, naturally because of my bias towards Rutgers. It's tough to follow the Pac-10 and ACC for different reasons. The ACC seems (except for VaTech) to be a basketball conference trying to transfer a successful formula on the hardwood to turf - and it hasn't quite happened yet. I don't follow the Pac-10 as much because it's simply a case of "out of sight, out of mind" - unless I'm watching ESPN, we don't hear much, if anything, from the West Coast about college football unless it involves USC. So I admit, my interest in the ACC and Pac-10 just isn't the same as it is for the Big 12, SEC, Big Ten, etc. So please, take these predictions/capsules with a grain of salt. I just don't know ACC/Pac-10 football as much as the others. And for the sake of time, I'm going to breeze through these 3 conferences and just include a few "key games" with some of my own notes.



Big East
1) Rutgers - (11-1, 6-1) - The Scarlet Knights have an incredibly easy schedule this year. Their one legit nonconference game is against Maryland, who won't even be very good this year. Rutgers' toughest game is at Louisville, and I have them losing to the Cardinals. Louisville will be fighting for a bowl game berth and will clearly want redemption for the devastating loss in 2006 that ended the Cardinals' national title hopes. Key players for the Knights include new QB Dom Natale - a Jersey product with an apparent cannon for an arm who transferred from Michigan State back to Rutgers. RU's offensive line is tremendous, perhaps one of the best in the country, with all 5 returning starters from last year back. They should get big seasons out of RB Kordell Young (if he stays healthy...he's a beast on NCAA), WR Tim Brown (not the Oakland HOFer) and CB Devin McCourty.
Key Games (my prediction in parens): @ Louisville (L), vs. USF (W), vs. West Virginia (W), vs. Cincinnati (W). The latter 3 teams all have a shot at the Big East this year, and that road will have to go through New Brunswick/Piscataway.



2) USF - (10-2, 6-1) - Huge season for the Bulls. They have to execute this year with senior QB Matt Grothe back along with most of their solid offense/defense from last year. I think they can - if they find a way to win on the road in some tough environments: Tallahassee (@ Florida State, Week 4), Pittsburgh, and Piscataway. Defensively, DE George Selvie anchors a defensive line with plenty of experience, but they will rely heavily on MLB Kion Wilson, DB Jerome Murphy, and FS Nate Allen.
Key games: @ Florida State (L), @ Rutgers (L), @ Pittsburgh (W), vs West Virginia (W), @ Connecticut (??? - upset?)



3) West Virginia (10-2, 5-2) - The Mountaineers get the tough draw this year with all their title foes on the road. They also lose their top 3 tacklers from last year, and lack experience on their offensive line. After Pitt, they're the only football "power" in the conference, but when I look at this team, something seems lacking this year. No Pat White, but they still have a mobile QB and Noel Devine, so clearly they have some big time guys. The beauty of their schedule is they play some good teams - @ Auburn, home vs. Colorado, and home vs. East Carolina, so if the Mountaineers survive Rutgers, USF, and Cincinnati (all on the road) they have a great chance at the title game.
Key games: @ Auburn (W), @ Cincinnati (W), @ Rutgers (L), @ USF (L)




4) Pittsburgh (8-3, 4-3) - The Panthers have an excellent defense returning despite losing 3 of their top 4 tacklers from last year. Offensively, they have a good offensive line and a handful of tall, wiry receivers capable of breaking the game open at any time. However, QB Bill Stull has to improve (9td,10int in 08) if the Panthers want to remain competitive.
Key games: @ Rutgers (L), @ West Virginia (L), vs. USF (L), vs. Notre Dame (L).



5) Louisville (7-5, 3-4) - I'm optimistic about the Cardinals this year. They have a big-time playmaker in RB Victor Anderson and several big-time receivers. New QB Justin Burke transferred from NC State and brings a fine Kentucky pedigree with him to Louisville, having grown up in Lexington. If he fits in nicely, and the Cardinals' solid defense (6/11 back) can keep them in games, they should be competing for a bowl game.
Key games: @ Utah (L), @ Kentucky (W), vs Pittsburgh (L), vs Southern Miss (W), @ Cincinnati (W)



6) Syracuse (4-8, 2-5) - I'm not in the habit of giving Syracuse positive press, but they should be better than people think this year. The Orange have a lot of experience coming back on offense, and with 1st-team Big East NT Arthur Jones back, at least they have some defensive pop. They also have a murderous schedule with 3 far-superior Big Ten schools to open the year, possibly preventing a surprise bowl berth for the Orange. (BTW, Syracuse's website is incredibly obnoxious - "New York's College Team"? What about St. John's? Manhattan? Fordham? Albany? Buffalo? Or even Rutgers? 50 minutes by train vs 4 hours by car - I'd say Rutgers is closer to New York City...) Key games: vs. Minnesota (L), @ Penn State (L), vs. Northwestern (L), @ Connecticut (W) A win against 2 of those 3 Big Ten teams puts them in position for a bowl game.



7) Connecticut - (2-10, 0-7) - Yes, I'm predicting a dire drop to zero Big East wins from last year's momentous International Bowl victory over Buffalo. They simply have no one on offense to replace their one-dimensional approach held while Donald Brown was the starter. Defensively, they see a few nice guys come back, like LB Scott Lutrus and FS Robert Vaughn, but this will be a rebuilding year for certain.
Key games: vs USF (L - final week of the season), vs Rutgers - the Huskies have a chance to play spoiler against these teams.

Expect the Pac-10 and ACC posts to be up soon.

SEC predictions

As with the first few posts, I'll try to include a blurb on each team and their schedule with my win-loss prediction. An asterisk * means they play a key/crucial game that I just can't bring myself to predict. Final win/loss totals are for the regular season, and I'll do a separate Bowl prediction post in a few days once I finish the major conferences.

SEC East
1) Florida - (12-0, 8-0) - There is no way Florida doesn't win the SEC. They have their entire defense back from the national championship last year plus Tebow and an experienced all-around offense. They're just too good. Don't get me wrong, I dislike Tim Tebow as much as anyone else, but barring injuries, they are a rightful #1 in the country. Here's their schedule - but does it really matter? Haha...

1. W - Charleston Southern
   
2. W - Troy
   
3. W - Tennessee
   
4. W @ Kentucky
   
5. Bye
   
6. W @ LSU - see below for why the Gators win
   
7. W - Arkansas
   
8. W @ Mississippi State
   
9. W - Georgia (Jacksonville)
   
10. W - Vanderbilt
    
11. W - @ South Carolina - Haha, it's incredible how outcoached Spurrier looks in these games.
    
12. W - FIU
    
13. W - Florida State
14. W - LSU - SEC Championship game - Rematch of week 6, and the Gators should come out on top.
    

2) Tennessee - (9-3, 5-3) Very odd to see them 2nd in the division, but the Vols have EIGHT home games this year and I don't see them losing any of them. Plus, they face their 3 toughest opponents on the road in Florida, Alabama, and Ole Miss, so they can afford those 3 losses. I like their offensive line (4 seniors) and 3 big-time defensive players in Rico McCoy, LaMarcus Thompson, and Eric Berry. It's bizarre, yes, but Lane Kiffin will be considered for Coach of the Year honors.

1. W - Western Kentucky (Sorry Randy Reeves)
   
2. W - UCLA - Nice Pac-10 battle but UCLA won't win in Knoxville.
   
3. L - @ Florida
   
4. W - Ohio
   
5. W - Auburn
   
6. W - Georgia - Should be a great game but I love the assistant coaches on Kiffin's staff. Monte Kiffin and Ed Orgeron are coaches on defense, and they should have that unit well-prepared.
   
7. Bye
   
8. L @ Alabama - 'Bama isn't as good as last year, but they return an even-better defense, and in Tuscaloosa, I can't see the Vols winning.
   
9. W - South Carolina
   
10. W - Memphis
    
11. L - @ Ole Miss
    
12. W - Vanderbilt
    
13. W - @ Kentucky

3) Georgia (7-4, 5-3) - This team has nowhere near as much breakthrough talent as they did last year, but they still have excellent guys in the trenches. To me, that alone should propel them and keep them competitive.

1. L - @ Oklahoma State - As previously written, OSU should be amazing this year, but this should still be a good game.
   
2. W - South Carolina - Really unremarkable all-around, Georgia should not have trouble beating SC.
   
3. W - @ Arkansas - The Razorbacks should be much improved this year but Georgia is too strong on the OL/DL.
   
4. W - Arizona State - I love UGA scheduling games against 2 BCS conference teams.
   
5. L - LSU - Weird for the Bulldogs to lose at home.
   
6. L - @ Tennessee - The SEC is too tough to get through in one piece.
   
7. W - @ Vanderbilt
8. Bye
   
9. L - Florida
   
10. W - Tennessee Tech
    
11. W - Auburn
12. W - Kentucky
    
13. L @ Georgia Tech - Big game for both teams - obviously for its rivalry status, and also for improved overall finish.

4) South Carolina (6-6, 2-6) - Another mediocre year for the Gamecocks and Steve Spurrier. They have some solid playmakers coming back on defense, but otherwise this team is unspectacular.

1. W - @ N.C. State
   
2. L - @ Georgia
3. W - Florida Atlantic
   
4. L - @ Ole Miss
   
5. W - South Carolina State
   
6. W - Kentucky
   
7. L - @ Alabama
   
8. W - Vanderbilt
   
9. L - @ Tennessee
   
10. L - @ Arkansas
    
11. L - Florida
    
12. Bye
    
13. W - Clemson - SC has not beaten the Tigers in a long time, and this game should clinch a bowl berth and possibly save Spurrier's job too.

5) Vanderbilt (5-7, 2-6) - The Commodores miss out on a bowl game despite a solid defensive team with the always-legendary Myron Lewis at CB.

1. W - West Carolina
   
2. L - @ LSU
   
3. W - Mississippi State
   
4. W - @ Rice
   
5. L - Ole Miss - a chance for an upset, but I can't really see it happening now.
   
6. W - @ Army
7. L - Georgia
   
8. L - @ South Carolina
   
9. L - Georgia Tech - Another upset possibility, especially if the Commodore D comes up big, but Paul Johnson's Yellow Jackets are among the best-drilled in the country. They won't lose this one on the road. Nashville isn't the toughest place to play.
   
10. L - @ Florida
    
11. W - Kentucky
    
12. L - @ Tennessee

6) Kentucky (4-8, 1-7) - This Wildcat team is not nearly as good as previous years. They're a young team and especially in the SEC, I'd expect them to struggle as they gain experience.

1. W - Miami OH (in Cincinnati)
   
2. L - Louisville - The Cardinals should be much better this year and Kentucky will pay the price.
   
3. L - Florida
   
4. L - Alabama
   
5. L - @ South Carolina
   
6. L - @ Auburn
7. W - ULM
   
8. W - Mississippi State
   
9. W - Eastern Kentucky
   
10. L - @ Vanderbilt
    
11. L - @ Georgia
    
12. L - Tennessee
    

SEC West
1) LSU (11-2, 6-2) - I feel like people are way underrating LSU. I look at this team and see 5-star talent up and down their roster. Les Miles' defenses are always outstanding and now that the Tigers actually have a QB in Jordan Jefferson, look for them to be back in the national spotlight, especially if RB Charles Scott can continue his All-SEC ways from 2008. The Tigers will beat Ole Miss in Oxford, make the SEC Championship game and fall to Florida, as the Rebels' one loss brings up another Kansas v. Mizzou-2007-style BCS shitstorm.

1. W - @ Washington - The Huskies should be better this year, but LSU is far more dominant on both sides of the ball.
   
2. W - Vanderbilt
   
3. W - Lousiana
   
4. W - @ Mississippi State
   
5. W - @ Georgia
   
6. L - Florida - We saw last year the Gators can handle going into extremely hostile enviornments and win. This year is no different - in a preview of the SEC championship game.
   
7. Bye
   
8. W - Auburn
   
9. W - Tulane
   
10. W - @ Alabama
    
11. W - Louisiana Tech
    
12. W - @ Ole Miss - Huge game to decide the SEC West. I love to root for Ole Miss, but I really think LSU has a lot more talent and Oxford isn't the toughest place to play; Les Miles is the Cadillac of SEC coaches while the lovable Houston Nutt is simply a Hyundai.
    
13. W - Arkansas
    
14. SEC Championship - Rematch of week 6, and Florida takes home the bacon again to go to the National Championship. As I wrote above, a BCS quandary begins again as 1-loss Ole Miss has just as worthy a case to go to the Sugar Bowl, while LSU's championship game performance could drop them to the Capital One Bowl, or promote them to the defacto January home game in New Orleans.

2) Ole Miss (11-1, 7-1) - Jevan Snead is the real deal at QB and the Rebels have some excellent skill players on both sides of the ball, but I don't see them performing as well as a team this year. I'd love to see the Rebels make it to the SEC Championship game and give Florida a run for their money, but in the past few years I've learned not to bet against LSU.

1. W @ Memphis
   
2. Bye
   
3. W - SE Louisiana
   
4. W - @ South Carolina
   
5. W - @ Vanderbilt
   
6. W - Alabama - Not as tough a game as it looks on paper. 'Bama isn't the team they were last year, and I think the Rebels' offense is good enough to break through the ironclad Crimson Tide defense, especially at home.
   
7. W - UAB
   
8. W - Arkansas
   
9. W - @ Auburn
   
10. W - Northern Arizona
    
11. W - Tennessee
    
12. L - LSU - As I wrote above, I have a really tough time betting against LSU in any big game. Les Miles= A Cadillac > Houston Nutt = Hyundai.
    
13. W - @ Mississippi State

3) Alabama (8-4, 5-3) - Altogether still a good team, but not good enough to challenge again for the SEC. WR Julio Jones will have another excellent year barring injury, and the Crimson Tide's experienced defense should terrorize opposing QBs.

1. L - Virginia Tech (Atlanta) - Great nonconference game to start the year, but I have to go with the Hokies. VT is stronger on both sides of the ball, and overall it certainly could go either way, but I like the Hokies to win this one.
   
2. W - FIU
   
3. W - North Texas
   
4. W - Arkansas
   
5. W - @ Kentucky
   
6. L - @ Ole Miss
   
7. W - South Carolina
   
8. W - Tennessee
   
9. Bye
   
10. L - LSU - Maybe this is a different result with 3 straight home games giving the Tide a chance to really get their game on, but again, I don't bet against LSU.
    
11. W - @ Mississippi State
    
12. W - Chattanooga
    
13. L - @ Auburn - A shocker in Auburn, but I think its rivalry game status and the fact that Auburn will be playing for a bowl berth gives the momentum to the Tigers.

4) 4)Arkansas (7-5, 3-5) - A good bounceback year for the Razorbacks as Bobby Petrino's system begins to flow. With 9 of 11 starters on defense coming back, highly touted Michigan transfer QB Ryan Mallett in command, and senior RB Michael Smith back with several other returning starters, the Razorbacks should be a solid all-around team.

1. W - Missouri State - Yes, the Bears will fall to the Razorbacks.
   
2. Bye
   
3. L - Georgia
   
4. L - @ Alabama
5. W - Texas A&M (House that Jerry Jones Built, Arlington, TX) - As I wrote before, a fun game, but Arkansas has a lot more talent and experience all around.
   
6. W - Auburn
   
7. L - @ Florida
   
8. L - @ Ole Miss - Brutal stretch of games with just the one home game sandwiched between the trip to Tuscaloosa, Arlington, Gainesville, and Oxford.
   
9. W - Eastern Michigan
   
10. W - South Carolina
    
11. W - Troy
    
12. W - Mississippi State - A nice 4 game stretch of home games rewards the Razorbacks.
    
13. L - @ LSU

5) Auburn (6-6, 3-5) - Surprisingly the Tigers will finish bowl-eligible, with help from a big upset win over Alabama. Tommy Tuberville left before he got to see some of his big-time recruits pan out, and Gene Chizik will benefit. The Tigers have the mediocre QB Kodi Burns back along with RB Ben Tate and defensive stud Antonio Coleman, and will need help from their teammates to finish bowl-eligible.

1. W - Louisiana Tech
   
2. W - Mississippi State
   
3. L - West Virginia - Very interesting game that could go the Tigers' way if the Mountaineers choke like they did last year in Boulder, Colorado. In fact, this is a tough game to predict. WV should be used to playing in an SEC atmosphere in Morgantown, but Jordan-Hare Stadium should be rocking with the chance to start 3-0. Still, I take WV on paper, but won't be surprised if the Tigers get the win.
   
4. W - Ball State
   
5. L - @ Tennessee
6. L - @ Arkansas
   
7. W - Kentucky - Auburn's defense should definitely step up in this game and win it.
   
8. L - @ LSU
   
9. L - Ole Miss
   
10. W - Furman
    
11. L - @ Georgia
    
12. W - Alabama - A huge Friday night game. In Auburn. In one of college football's biggest rivalries. At stake - a trip to a bowl game for the home team? I take Auburn. Chizik always had his Cyclone teams ready to play in their rivalry games and even knocked off Iowa in 2007 with a terrible team, so I like the Tigers' chances.

6) Mississippi State (3-9, 0-8) - The Bulldogs are a young team, and despite new coach Dan Mullen's enthusiastic, spread-offense approach, they'll struggle this year. Their anemic offense will rely on senior RB Anthony Dixon, but with an inexperienced offensive line, chances are they won't improve - and with Dixon's recent arrest for a DUI, they may be forced to improvise. I haven't found much on whether Dixon will face more legal trouble or play on regardless - this seems to be the latest update.

1. W - Jackson State
   
2. L - @ Auburn
   
3. L - @ Vanderbilt
   
4. L - LSU
   
5. L - Georgia Tech
   
6. W - Houston
   
7. W - @ Middle Tennessee
   
8. L - Florida
   
9. L - @ Kentucky
   
10. Bye
    
11. L - Alabama
12. L @ Arkansas
    
13. L - Ole Miss
    

Big Ten predictions/preview

As with the first post, I'll try to include a blurb on each team and their schedule with my win-loss prediction. An asterisk * means they play a key/crucial game that I just can't bring myself to predict. Final win/loss totals are for the regular season, and I'll do a separate Bowl prediction post in a few days once I finish the major conferences. Here's the Big Ten/Eleven - some surprises, but otherwise, nothing too unusual.
1) Penn State (12-0, 8-0) - It's tough to pick against the Nittany Lions this year with their 2 biggest offensive threats coming back in QB Darryl Clark and RB Evan Royster. While they lack experience on the O-line, Penn State always recruits some of the best offensive linemen in the country (I say that because one of my coaches in middle school football played on the o-line at PSU in the 1980s, and he was a beast!) Defensively though, the Lions have a few holes. If there's a way for PSU to lose the conference, it's in their cornerbacks and safeties' inexperience.

1. W - Akron
2. W - Syracuse
   
3. W - Temple
   
4. W - Iowa - Potential upset though. As you'll see below, I like Iowa a lot this year and if enough goes right, they could knock off PSU in this game.
   
5. W @ Illinois - Should be an offensive slugfest, but PSU turns the ball over less than Juice.
   
6. W - Eastern Illinois
   
7. W - Minnesota
   
8. W - @ Michigan - Michigan will be better this year, but PSU is better than them.
   
9. W - @ Northwestern
   
10. W - Ohio State - As with the Iowa game, this is huge. OSU's defense seems better than the Lions, and it's totally plausible to see the Buckeyes knock off PSU in Happy Valley. But by this point, I think Penn State has enough experience in big games to come through.
    
11. W - Indiana
12. W @ Michigan State
    

2) Ohio State (10-2, 6-2) - I like the Buckeyes a lot this year, but their end-of-season schedule is brutal: @ Penn State, vs. Iowa, @ Michigan. I don't think they withstand that stretch undefeated. But, they do soundly beat USC at home, giving them a solid argument for a good BCS ranking.

1. W - Navy
   
2. W - USC - USC is just not that good this year. Call me crazy, but I don't see their defense being strong enough to get them back to the Rose Bowl. OSU is a lot more experienced and will come in hungry to knock off the Trojans.
   
3. W - Toledo (in Cleveland) - Not sure why this is a neutral-site game, but OSU should dominate. Might be the only good football Clevelanders get to see all year.
   
4. W - Illinois - Should be a fun game, but OSU doesn't lose this one at home.
   
5. W @ Indiana
6. W - Wisconsin
   
7. W @ Purdue
   
8. W - Minnesota
   
9. W - New Mexico State - Big "off" week of sorts for OSU before their killer 3 game stretch.
   
10. L - @ Penn State - As written above, this could go either way, but I take the home team. The Lions are an astonishing 26-2 since 2005 in Happy Valley.
11. W - Iowa - Again, an extremely tough game, but like the PSU game, the home field advantage is huge for the Buckeyes at this point in the year. They escape a close one.
    
12. L @ Michigan - A surprising loss, but the Wolverines have not beaten the Buckeyes in FIVE years. Something's gotta change, and with Michigan playing for a bowl berth, they upset the Buckeyes in Ann Arbor.
    

3) Iowa (10-2, 6-2) - Ricky Stanzi seems to be the real deal at QB, and with the Hawkeyes' excellent defense returning most of their main guys (like the aptly-named Pat Angerer) , Iowa has a real darkhorse shot to win the Big Ten.

1. W - Northern Iowa
   
2. W @ Iowa State
   
3. W - Arizona - Nice Pac-10 scheduling, good win overall.
   
4. L - @ Penn State - Should be a very good game. Home team advantage and potential payback on the line for the Nittany Lions losing in Iowa City last year.
5. W - Arkansas State
   
6. W - Michigan - Good win on homecoming.
   
7. W @ Wisconsin - The Badgers should be better than expected this year, but the Hawkeyes will be too much to handle.
   
8. W @ Michigan State - Michigan State lost their 2 biggest offensive players to the draft/graduation, and even with a good defense coming back, the Hawkeyes take care of business on the road.
   
9. W - Indiana - Unremarkable, the Hoosiers suck.
   
10. W - Northwestern
    
11. L - @ Ohio State - Another tough loss, but the home team prevails.
    
12. W - Minnesota - Good recovery win to end the regular season and hope for a good bowl selection.
    

4) Wisconsin (10-2, 6-2) A surprising season for the Badgers: despite losing some of their big offensive and defensive sluggers, as they enjoy an easy schedule and ride the momentum of a 5-0 start to another good bowl game. RB John Clay is a beast and should benefit from a very talented offensive line in front of him. QB Curt Phillips has to just manage the offense.

1. W - Northern Illinois
   
2. W - Fresno State
   
3. W - Wofford
   
4. W - Michigan State
   
5. W - @ Minnesota - The Gophers will have broken in TCF Bank Stadium by this point, so they'd be due to lose at least one game at home.
   
6. L - @ Ohio State - Blowout.
   
7. L - Iowa - Despite it being homecoming weekend in Madison, Iowa is far superior.
   
8. Bye
   
9. W - Purdue - good bounce-back win.
   
10. W - @ Indiana - Easy win.
    
11. W - Michigan
12. W @ Northwestern
    
13. Bye
    
14. W @ Hawaii - Weird time to have a nonconference game, but who wouldn't love a trip to Honolulu in December? Badgers should win.
    

5) Illinois (9-3, 6-2) - Yes, they have QB Juice Williams coming back, but he needs help to stay a winner in his final season in Champaign. WR Aurrelious Benn will be heavily relied on to maintain an offense that sputtered at times last year. Defensively, they lose CB stud Vontae Davis and will need an inexperienced defensive line to step up to stay competitive. Even with that, it'll be a bounceback year for the Illini.

1. W - Missouri - As I wrote yesterday, I just don't think the Tigers can beat Illinois for the 4th straight time. Illinois got embarrassed in the past 2 matchups with turnovers and bad luck, so this year, the Illini take control in the Edward Jones Dome.
   
2. W - Illinois State
   
3. Bye
   
4. L - @ Ohio State - Not much of a surprise, I don't see another 07-like upset in the books.
   
5. L - Penn State - A huge challenge for Penn State to come into Champaign sharp after a potential emotional win over Iowa, but I see them getting the W. Could easily go the Illini's way.
   
6. W - Michigan State - A good win on Homecoming weekend.
   
7. W @ Indiana
   
8. W @ Purdue - Back to back trips to Indiana are fruitful this time around.
   
9. W - Michigan
   
10. W @ Minnesota
    
11. W - Northwestern
    
12. Bye
    
13. L @ Cincinnati - Cincy is pretty good this year and should be well-tuned for the Illini, despite U of I's bye week beforehand.
    
14. W - Fresno State - Like Wisconsin, Illinois is hoping that playing that extra week after everyone else in the conference can keep them sharp for bowl season. FSU gets blown out in an icy Champaign.
    

6) Michigan (6-6, 3-5) - Besides the QB position, UM has a ton of experience coming back on offense. RB Brandon Minor put up good numbers and his offensive line is also very experienced. Look for them to be good offensively, and adequate defensively. 4 of their top 6 tacklers from last year are back, including LBs Obi Ezah, Jonas Mouton, and Stevie Brown. Overall, a season that sees them return to respectability.

1. W - Western Michigan
   
2. L - Notre Dame - Good game at home but Notre Dame is just a more talented team all-around.
   
3. W - Eastern Michigan
   
4. W - Indiana
   
5. L @ Michigan State - This might be MSU's only chance to pick up a Big Ten home win - and with nothing to play for, the Spartans take this one.
   
6. L @ Iowa
   
7. W - Delaware State
   
8. L - Penn State - I don't see this being much of a contest.
   
9. L @ Illinois - Just not enough defense or offense, to compete with Juice and Benn.
   
10. W - Purdue
    
11. L @ Wisconsin
    
12. W - Ohio State - as written above, the Wolverines come into this game fighting for a bowl berth, and with OSU's title hopes nixed by Penn State, they come into Ann Arbor flat. Michigan wins the upset and gets their first "The Game" victory in five years.
    

7) Minnesota (6-6, 3-5) - Not as good a season as 2008, but the Gophers return some good talent all-around and stay relevant in the Big Ten while opening their new stadium. QB Adam Weber is a good leader who spreads the ball well with good legs - and with his favorite target in WR Eric Decker back, they should be a nice combination.

1. W @ Syracuse - Haha, I love seeing Syracuse lose.
   
2. W - Air Force - Big home opener for Minnesota in what should be a beautiful fall afternoon in Minneapolis.
   
3. L - California - Interesting home game for the Gophers. Cal is really good, and this could be an upset, but it'd take some luck.
   
4. W @ Northwestern
   
5. L - Wisconsin - As written above, this is a letdown home game for the Gophers.
   
6. W - Purdue
   
7. L @ Penn State - Blowout
   
8. L @ Ohio State - Probably another demoralizing blowout for the Gophers.
   
9. W - Michigan State - good bounce back win.
   
10. L - Illinois - This is definitely a trap game for Illinois, but again, I don't think Decker and Weber are quite on the same level as Juice and Benn. It'll be an interesting one though.
    
11. W - South Dakota State - Nice win at home clinches a bowl berth for the 2nd straight season.
    
12. L - @ Iowa - Another potential upset, but I think Iowa has too much on the line to blow this one.
    

8) Northwestern (6-6, 2-6) - The Wildcats lose much of the offensive skill players that got them to the Alamo Bowl last year, but return a solid, experienced defense and an underrated offensive line. Still, I expect them to struggle without any big time playmakers.

1. W - Towson
   
2. W - Eastern Michigan
   
3. W - @ Syracuse - A dangerous game for the Wildcats, as Syracuse will be hungry for a win after losing to Minnesota and Penn State.
4. L - Minnesota - Gophers get the better of Northwestern.
   
5. L @ Purdue - Boilermakers pick up an emotional home win on their homecoming weekend.
   
6. W - Miami, OH - Easy win
7. W - @ Michigan State - Nice bounce-back win for the Wildcats against a bad MSU team.
   
8. W - Indiana - Make it 3 straight for Northwestern, clinching a bowl berth.
   
9. L - Penn State - If Northwestern gets enough momentum, they could knock off PSU. But don't count on it.
   
10. L - @ Iowa - A definite loss.
    
11. L - @ Illinois - The Illini have to win this game. I think they come through.
    
12. L - Wisconsin - Tough end to the season, but Northwestern's tough schedule hurts them.

9) Purdue (5-7, 3-5) - Now with a permanent coach in Danny Hope, the Boilermakers can focus on getting back to respectability. They have a good O-line coming back and some experience on defense, but will need time to work in the offensive gamechangers. WR Aaron Valentin, a Long Island native, is expected to be the leader on offense.

1. W - Toledo
   
2. L - @ Oregon - No way does Purdue go into Eugene and win.
   
3. W - Northern Illinois
   
4. L - Notre Dame - Tough home loss but ND is definitely the better team.
   
5. W - Northwestern - As written above, Purdue comes in much more fired up for this game and uses the homecoming crowd to pick up the win.
   
6. L @ Minnesota - Letdown game, but a sound defeat.
   
7. L - Ohio State - Buckeyes should win easily
   
8. L - Illinois
   
9. L - @ Wisconsin -
   
10. L - @ Michigan - Tough to drop 5 in a row, but unless the Boilers' step in quickly to fill the holes left behind by Curtis Painter and co, they'll be left scrambling.
    
11. W - Michigan State
    
12. W - @ Indiana - Definite win.
    

10) Michigan State (4-8, 1-5) I just don't see what Phil Steele had in mind when he picked the Spartans to go to the Alamo Bowl, let alone finish bowl-eligible. Besides a strong offensive line, they are terrible offensively even with stud WR Blair White because they lose the beastly Javon Ringer, the glue of their offense last year. On defense, their unremarkable squad has 8 of 11 back, but it won't stop them from missing out on a bowl for the first time in Mark Dantonio's tenure.

1. W - Montana State
   
2. W - Central Michigan
   
3. L @ Notre Dame
   
4. L @ Wisconsin - Tough stretch
   
5. W - Michigan - Letdown game for the Wolverines as the Spartans bounce back from 2 tough losses...
   
6. L @ Illinois - ...as the Spartans stay in the clouds and get crumpled by the Fighting Illini.
   
7. L - Northwestern
   
8. L - Iowa
   
9. L @ Minnesota
   
10. W - Western Michigan
    
11. L - @ Purdue
    
12. L - Penn State - Despite this being a "rivalry" game (Never understood why - even if both schools are a "land grant"), Penn State destroys the Spartans in East Lansing.
    

11) Indiana (2-10, 0-8) - Despite the best efforts of coach Bill Lynch, Indiana is still a basketball school. Very little talent all-around, and with a tough schedule, the Hoosiers have yet another losing season.

1. W - East Kentucky - Yay! A win in Bloomington!
   
2. L - Western Michigan - The Broncos are actually expected to be pretty good in the MAC this year, and it would not surprise me to see them slaughter Indiana.
   
3. W @ Akron - Barely.
   
4. L @ Michigan - and so begins a stretch of losses making them an embarrassment to the Big Ten.
   
5. L - Ohio State
   
6. L @ Virginia
   
7. L - Illinois
   
8. L @ Northwestern
   
9. L @ Iowa
   
10. L - Wisconsin
    
11. L @ Penn State
12. L - Purdue - It's basketball season by now in Bloomington.

I'll be back tomorrow or tonight with the SEC, Pac-10, and Big East!